Macau’s Casino Recovery Outpaces Expectations in New UBS Forecast
Macau's casino revenue rebound is moving faster than many anticipated.
LISTEN TO THIS ARTICLE:Global bank UBS Group AG has nudged up its forecasts for Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR), saying the market’s recovery is gathering momentum and that premium-focused operators are likely to lead the rebound. In its latest research note, UBS now expects full-year GGR to climb 9% year-on-year in 2025, a small upward revision from its prior estimate, but a clear signal that momentum is stronger than earlier models suggested. The momentum also aligns with Macau’s broader push to diversify beyond gaming
Despite the improvement, UBS warned the market remains below its pre-pandemic peak: the bank’s 2025 projection sits roughly 16% beneath 2019 levels. UBS is forecasting a further 6% rise in 2026 – leaving GGR about 11% under 2019 – and has lifted its 2027 view by 2 percentage points to a 4% gain, still some 7% shy of the 2019 baseline. UBS also separates performance by segment: it anticipates mass-market revenue will expand by 7% in 2025, 6% in 2026 and 4% in 2027, while VIP forecasts were adjusted slightly, with 2025 VIP growth trimmed by 1 percentage point to a 22% rise.
"Operators focused on high-end products and premium service offerings should outperform the broader market as reinvestment stabilizes and demand remains robust", UBS analysts wrote, flagging that properties with upgraded hotels, suites and VIP facilities are best positioned to capitalise on returning high-value customers. The bank singled out names such as Sands China, Wynn Macau and MGM China as likely beneficiaries of stronger premium flows.
Independent research from Citi Research has bolstered the upbeat picture. Citi estimates that premium gamblers have been particularly active this year, with betting volume in the segment rising about 19% compared with the prior year. Citi added that the first 11 months of 2025 produced an 8.6% increase in GGR, taking cumulative GGR to roughly $28.1 billion.
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Analysts point to large-scale events and a healthier travel calendar as key growth drivers. The National Games in mainland China and the Macau Grand Prix helped lift footfall and spending during recent months, and early Golden Week figures were broadly in line with private-sector expectations. "Premium players drove a disproportionate share of growth, with betting volume up an estimated 19% year-on-year," Citi Research said, highlighting the uneven but material role of high-value customers.
Industry specialists caution that the recovery is not uniform and faces downside risks. "Large-scale events and stronger domestic travel are accelerating premium demand, but Macau's trajectory still depends on China travel policy, regulatory oversight of junkets and consumer sentiment in key mainland provinces", said Maria Carvalho, head of Asia gaming research at Red Door Analytics. "Operators that invested in premium amenities over the last two years are reaping the benefits, but the market remains exposed to episodic shocks and policy shifts."
Government projections in Macau continue to take a more conservative stance than some private analysts, reflecting caution around volatility in VIP flows and uncertainty about sustainable mass-market growth. Regulators including the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau have released monthly data that, in recent months, has tracked closer to consensus forecasts – a welcome sign for operators and investors but not a guarantee of steady expansion.
For operators, the near-term playbook appears clear: sustain investments in premium product and guest experience, while maintaining diversified exposure to mass-market segments. For investors and policymakers, the primary questions remain whether China’s travel policies will stay permissive and whether VIP demand can broaden beyond episodic spikes tied to marquee sporting and cultural events.
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