From Claw Machines to Casinos: How the Illusion of Winning Shapes Player Behavior

Author: R. Paul Wilson

Cheaters and con artists frequently appear in these articles, always coming up with new tricks. However, as we have often discussed, the principles underlying these tricks are almost always familiar. Even those of us who fall into a newly designed trap can quickly recognize classic methods in hindsight. In talks and lectures, I often illustrate how classic scams manipulate us through predictable reactions. While few principles of deception are 100% reliable, their success rate remains high when applied to a larger number of potential victims. This makes those same principles extremely attractive to “legitimate” businesses seeking to increase their revenue or, more worryingly, to influence public behavior.

It still surprises me how often audiences and clients resist the idea that the methods of crooked scammers are similar or identical to those of supposedly honest corporations or political parties, but human nature is human nature, and we need to recognize that all of us are constantly bombarded by self-filtered biases built on the foundation of all good con games: what we want.

I’ll say it again: If I know what you want, I can take everything you have.

Gamblers want to win, and the casino industry as a whole – from land-based venues to online casinos in the USA and beyond – must maintain the illusion that winning is more possible than it actually is. Even the most experienced craps players can fall under that spell while digging themselves deeper into a hole, and an excellent (simpler) example of this can be found not on the gaming floor but in the arcade, where kids play video games and re-jiggered carnival games for garish prizes and ugly stuffed toys.

You know this game well, and I bet you’ve played it at some point in your life: The CLAW.

Many years ago, I would eat breakfast at Lancers, a small diner in Burbank, California, known for its reliable eggs and friendly staff, which attracted an elderly customer base that illustrated how reasonable the prices were. Most days while in town, I would meet friends there for breakfast and soon began to notice an old man with an oxygen tank. He would stop at two machines by the door and, before leaving, would empty them both of soft toys with the help of the robot-like claw.

He was incredibly consistent; almost every fifty cents he played was rewarded with a toy. Once I noticed him, I became obsessed. Every time he got up from his table to leave and head for the exit, he would fill a bag with prizes. But how was he so consistently successful? I had to know his secret! One day, I approached him and struck up a conversation. A few close-up magic tricks later, I convinced him to share his technique. It was simple yet ingenious, but it relied on one important factor: that it be an older machine.

The claw is a ubiquitous arcade device that is guaranteed to make money from most people, unless they are aware of old Al’s secret (there’s a clip on YouTube of me demonstrating it in Blackpool, England, about twenty years ago). However, modern machines are different from the ones Al would empty (he took the toys to the children’s ward of his hospital) because, thanks to a simple piece of software and an even simpler mechanical adjustment, winning relies much more on luck than skill.

The Mechanics of Manipulation

I recently watched someone dissect a claw machine to illustrate how easily the device can be made to win or lose according to a predetermined percentage. To avoid a successful ‘catch’, the physical claw is deprived of a constant flow of electricity to maintain a grip, and the fluctuation of power is why it often picks up and drops toys seemingly at random. This creates an illusion that the claw failed because of another random factor when, in actual fact, it’s simply not functional until it’s collected enough cash to literally ‘get a grip’.

Let’s say each toy costs the operator $1 and he wants to make $10 for each one; all he has to do is set the software to allow a win after ten losses, and the claw will do the rest. After that, the claw becomes far more reliable, and the skill of the player will determine whether they can carry a prize to the winner's chute. When combining this deliberate hobbling of the device with player ineptitude, the average profit can be eye-watering, all thanks to easily variable voltage.

None of this will surprise you, but consider that almost anyone who plays these machines already suspects these types of shenanigans, yet the claw continues to be immensely profitable. The reason is that making the claw appear to work intermittently creates a game of tease that players get suckered into. Logically, they might presume that some machines are ready to pay out, so that's where good luck can turn the tide. However, subconsciously, they are being slowly robbed by the simple pleasures of seeing a plush cartoon character lifted briefly from the fold.

The psychological game these machines play may not have happened entirely by design, but it works brilliantly, and I take great interest in watching people pay way more for some old tat than they would ever pay in a shop.

It’s not a leap to say that slot machines are exactly the same, but that’s a story for another day.

The point is that a simple secret can deliver a powerful edge that causes people to act in a predictable and reliable manner, losing more than they would expect while continuing to play until the claw delivers. Going a little deeper, simple manipulative games like this exploit human nature toward a desired objective – in this case, to spend more money – but what happens when those same principles are used toward more complex goals?

When Psychological Tricks Go Global

Cambridge Analytica was a data analytics company that gained notoriety for its role in political campaigns and its misuse of personal data. Operating under a veneer of legitimacy, the company influenced public opinion by leveraging vast amounts of data harvested from social media platforms such as Facebook. While positioning itself as a leader in advanced analytics, its methods revealed a darker objective: mass persuasion using methods strikingly similar to the psychological tricks used by con artists.

Like scammers exploiting human vulnerabilities, Cambridge Analytica used personal data to manipulate predictable patterns of thought and behavior. By collecting information on millions of people, often without their knowledge or consent, they created detailed psychographic profiles to target individuals with precision. Messages tailored to these profiles were designed to bypass critical thinking, appealing instead to raw emotion – fear, anger, or hope – turning even the most neutral observer into a potential pawn.

This approach proved highly effective in major political campaigns. During the 2016 U.S. presidential election, Cambridge Analytica targeted swing voters with messaging designed to shift opinions. Similarly, in the UK’s Brexit referendum, they amplified divisive narratives to foster support for leaving the European Union. These campaigns relied heavily on emotionally charged content, mirroring the manipulative strategies of a con artist playing on heightened emotions to control outcomes.

The company’s influence extended beyond the digital space, using traditional media to plant stories and create seemingly grassroots movements, blending covert manipulation with overt narrative shaping. This layered strategy – deceptively subtle yet profoundly impactful – reflected classic scams, where the victim is often unaware of manipulation until the damage is done.

When Cambridge Analytica’s practices were exposed in 2018, public outrage brought the company to its knees. Yet, like the aftermath of any great con, the lessons remain, and like mushrooms, countless imitators have emerged to apply these techniques from the shadows of the internet. Their tactics highlight how human behavior can be predicted and manipulated on a massive scale, often under the guise of legitimate enterprise.

Knowing When to Walk Away

Many people know this story (though a distressing number do not), yet, like individuals continuing to drop coins into unfair arcade games, we continue to engage with modern media without caution and regardless of our political persuasions, perception is constantly being shaped and manipulated by sophisticated methods.

In every aspect of our online lives, analog tricks are being constantly incorporated by digital platforms eager to farm our attention, decisions, and resources. As a percentage game, it’s a strategy that pays enormous dividends. All we can do is recognize that it happens, attempt to identify when we are being manipulated, and know when we should walk away from the table.