Analysts Predict Las Vegas Locals Casinos Will Continue to Outperform the Strip
Analysts predict Las Vegas locals casinos will continue to outpace Strip properties.
LISTEN TO THIS ARTICLE:Two recent research reports from industry analysts argue the Las Vegas locals market is set to remain robust and could financially outperform the tourist-driven Strip. John DeCree, director of equity research at CBRE Group in Las Vegas, and Kim Noland of Gimme Credit LLC each point to a mix of property reinvestment, expanding local-focused amenities, and proposed federal tax changes as reasons for a favorable outlook in the coming years.
DeCree, writing in an analyst note released Tuesday, highlighted both near-term catalysts and structural advantages for locals operators. "Although comparisons get more difficult for the locals market in 2026, there are still several catalysts on the horizon that should fuel moderate growth, including tax cuts under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and recent capital reinvestment from major operators such as Boyd Gaming Corp. and Red Rock Resorts", he wrote. DeCree said these elements, combined with operator capital spending, should underpin steady performance even as broader tourism dynamics fluctuate.
Noland emphasized the impact of project-level investment on market share. She pointed to Red Rock Resorts’ expansion at its Durango property as a major growth driver and described how that single development has changed local market dynamics.
The company owns seven major locations and 12 smaller properties, and its profit growth recently has been driven by its popular new casino Durango as well as upgrades at Green Valley Ranch and Sunset Station expected to be completed this year. Red Rock’s largest and most significant peer, Boyd Gaming, owns casinos nationwide, and while its profit margins may be slightly superior to Red Rock, its overall performance in the locals market has lagged recently due to the success of Durango. Red Rock is outselling the competition in part because Durango has grown the market since it opened and also because Red Rock is taking share with its major expansions."
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Locals’ Historical Resilience and Policy Tailwinds
DeCree also drew on a long-term historical comparison to underline the local market’s resilience during downturns. "Since 1984, annual gross gaming revenue on the Strip declined 11 times compared with six times for the locals market", he observed. He detailed how locals performed better through several stress periods: during the global financial crisis, the locals' decline was marginally smaller than the Strip; in 2020, the locals market saw a shallower drop than the Strip; and in earlier recessions, locals have even recorded gains while the Strip fell.
"Moreover, the locals market has decoupled significantly from the Strip with a more diversified economy and a more favorable supply-demand balance with the number of gaming positions per 100,000 residents down over 47 percent since 2007", DeCree noted, highlighting a tighter local supply picture that supports revenue per property.
On the policy side, Noland flagged proposed federal measures as supportive for core locals customers: "Administration tax policies on tips, overtime and a senior citizen tax deduction will continue to assist the company’s core customers in the locals market," she wrote. Analysts say these measures could boost disposable income for tipped workers and seniors, who make up a large share of local casino patrons.
The reports also examine company-level shifts. DeCree reduced his price target for Golden Entertainment amid its transition to private ownership tied to a Vici Properties transaction. "We are lowering our Golden price target to $28 (a share, from $32) based on the current exchange ratio for the stock portion of the transaction with Vici Properties Inc.", he wrote, noting that Golden’s Colorado and local Nevada businesses – such as Arizona Charlie’s – should remain resilient even as The Strat contends with softer Strip leisure demand.
Implications for Operators and Investors
Analysts say the immediate implication is that operators focused on locals will likely continue to prioritize reinvestment and targeted expansions to capture market share, while private ownership could free some groups to pursue bolder deals without public-market scrutiny. For investors, the outlook suggests relative defensiveness in locals assets compared with Strip-facing resorts, though risks remain, including broader economic swings that affect consumer spending and any slowdown in tourism recovery that could alter comparative performance.
Overall, the research points to a nuanced picture: strong local demand, strategic capital projects such as Red Rock’s Durango expansion, and potential tax-policy tailwinds combine to give Las Vegas locals operators a favorable growth runway into 2026, even as comparisons become more challenging next year.
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