New UK Study Warns That Gambling Harm May Be More Widespread Than Expected
A new analysis suggests nearly one in four UK gamblers would trigger the government's upcoming financial risk checks.
LISTEN TO THIS ARTICLE:A study published on the academic platform ScienceDirect, drawing on more than a year of anonymised open‑banking data from more than 243,000 people who bet, indicates that almost 25% of the gambling population would have met the UK Gambling Commission’s (UKGC) proposed threshold for a “light‑touch” affordability check. Under the UKGC’s white paper proposals, operators must run simplified financial risk checks on customers who lose £150 or more in any rolling 30‑day period; those checks are due to become mandatory in February 2025.
According to the researchers, the subgroup that exceeded the threshold – which the paper terms “Exceeding Threshold Gamblers” – accounted for roughly 92% of all cash spent on gambling in the dataset. The analysis used cluster techniques to divide the high‑spending cohort into three distinct profiles. Around half were described as diversified spenders whose gambling outlays appeared broadly proportional to income. The remaining clusters included gamblers whose spending was volatile or tightly correlated with spells of financial strain, patterns the authors flagged as markers of vulnerability.
The team’s use of transactional records allows a pre‑policy baseline against which the impact of the new checks can be measured. While regulators have previously estimated the checks would identify higher‑risk customers, the scale revealed by the data – and the concentration of spend in a relatively small group – raises fresh questions about how many clients operators will need to review and what tools they will use to do so without creating undue friction.
Researchers also identified demographic skews: the Exceeding Threshold group was disproportionately young and male and showed more intense, frequent wagering than the general gambling population. The study’s authors say these patterns point to priority cohorts for targeted safeguards and further investigation by public‑health researchers and policymakers.
Related: GambleAware Survey Finds Five Million Want to Cut Back on Gambling
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What This Means for Operators and Regulators
The findings arrive amid broader evidence of mounting pressure in the UK gambling market. An industry survey from last November found nearly half of respondents admitted hiding or downplaying their betting behaviour, with many reluctant to seek help until losses mounted. Charities such as GambleAware have also reported rising problem‑gambling indicators and widespread exposure to advertising; in its recent polling more than six in ten respondents felt promotional activity was unavoidable.
A GambleAware spokesperson said: "These new transactional data underscore what frontline services and our own research have been reporting – a substantial minority of bettors are experiencing harm or are at heightened risk. Publicity, stigma and easy access to products all make it harder for people to seek help. We welcome measures that identify and support people sooner, but they must be accompanied by clear referral pathways and effective, evidence‑based interventions."
A UK Gambling Commission spokesperson added: "The regulator's proposals are designed to protect consumers while minimising unnecessary intrusion. The research provides valuable context for implementation ahead of the February 2025 deadline. Operators will need to balance proportionate checks with timely interventions where there are clear signs of risk."
For operators, the study highlights practical challenges: building reliable, automated triggers from bank feeds; distinguishing between routine spending spikes and harmful behaviour; and managing regulatory expectations at scale. For researchers and campaigners, the data offer a way to evaluate whether the checks reach those most in need and how they affect help‑seeking and harm outcomes over time.
As the February 2025 compliance date approaches, the study is likely to intensify discussion among operators, the regulator and public‑health bodies about resourcing, data standards and the thresholds that determine intervention. If the paper’s results are borne out across the wider market, firms could face a much larger pool of customers requiring review than previously assumed, with implications for staff training, automated systems and the availability of support services.
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