Trump Media Unveils Truth Predict, a New Prediction-Market Platform
Truth Social is launching a prediction-market feature called Truth Predict.
LISTEN TO THIS ARTICLE:Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) has announced a new partnership with Crypto.com to introduce Truth Predict, a prediction-market service embedded within the Truth Social platform that will let users place wagers on political, economic and sporting outcomes. According to TMTG, the tool will allow users to trade contracts tied to events ranging from US elections and Federal Reserve rate decisions to major sports leagues and commodity prices, with prices updating in real time to reflect news and changes in public sentiment.
TMTG said the feature will enter beta testing in the coming weeks, followed by a staged rollout across the United States and planned expansion to international markets. Devin Nunes, chairman of TMTG, framed the initiative as a democratic innovation intended to democratize information markets.
Truth Predict will allow our loyal users to engage in prediction markets with a trusted network while harnessing our social media platform to provide unique ways for users to discuss and compare their predictions. We believe this approach gives Americans a new tool to tap into the wisdom of the crowd and make more informed choices.
The tie-up with Crypto.com – an exchange that has sought to deepen its footprint in the U.S. – is a notable element of the launch. Crypto.com has pursued greater legitimacy in recent months, including an application for a U.S. bank charter and the conclusion of a Securities and Exchange Commission inquiry, and has been linked to political donations reported to total around $11 million to causes associated with the Trump family. The exchange has also faced regulatory friction in the U.S.; Nevada authorities recently required Crypto.com to suspend certain sports event contracts in the state.
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Experts Warn of Oversight and Integrity Challenges
Truth Predict arrives at a moment of shifting regulatory attitudes toward prediction markets. Over the past year, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) withdrew an appeal challenging Kalshi’s ability to operate election-related markets, and federal authorities, including the Department of Justice, have concluded probes into other prediction platforms, smoothing a path for greater commercial activity. At the same time, opponents continue to warn that prediction markets can resemble gambling and may undermine established regulatory frameworks.
Kevin F. O’Toole, executive director of the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board, voiced a blunt warning: "Prediction markets are a significant threat to the integrity of state regulatory systems and can easily blur the line between legitimate forecasting and unregulated betting. States must act carefully to protect consumers and public confidence". His office has been among the most vocal in urging strict oversight.
The political connections between the Trump family and the prediction market sector have intensified attention. Donald Trump Jr. has taken advisory roles with leading platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, while 1789 Capital, a venture firm associated with the Trump family, has invested in Polymarket. Major financial players have also shown interest: Intercontinental Exchange previously signaled a willingness to provide substantial backing to certain prediction-market operators.
Industry experts say Truth Predict’s success will hinge on the interplay of user demand, platform safeguards and a complex, state-by-state regulatory environment. If TMTG and Crypto.com can demonstrate robust consumer protections, clear compliance with US and international rules, and transparent market-design safeguards, the product could attract active engagement. If not, it risks swift pushback from regulators and state gaming authorities.
For now, Truth Predict represents both a commercial experiment and a test of how prediction markets fit into the broader ecosystem of social media, political influence and regulated financial activity.
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