PGCB Chief Warns of "Wild West" Prediction Markets

Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board Executive Director Kevin F. O'Toole has sent a letter to state Senators and Congressional members expressing grave concerns about prediction markets.

An image of a man betting on mobile. PGCB’s Kevin O'Toole warns that prediction markets threaten regulated sports betting.
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He warned that such markets could undermine the state’s regulated sports betting industry and pose risks to consumer safety. According to O’Toole, prediction markets, particularly those involving sports event contracts, jeopardize the state's established regulatory structure for sports betting, which is carefully balanced to ensure integrity. He pointed out that prediction markets lack oversight and consumer protection, due to their self-certified models, which leaves them largely unchecked by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) at the federal level

O’Toole noted in the letter: “Sports prediction markets operate under the assertion that they are financial derivatives, or swaps, and therefore claim to not be gambling under state law. These markets effectively create a backdoor to legalized sports betting, operating parallel to, but outside of, the state-regulated system, and without strict oversight.”

The director also added that while state gaming regulators prioritize public protection, and put in place stringent measures to ensure responsible gaming practices, and problem gambling prevention, the CFTC's regulatory structure is oriented towards derivatives markets characterized by sophisticated institutional market players.

O’Toole added, “With all due respect to the CFTC, it would take years for them to create the regulatory system and oversight that state gaming authorities have in place, which would also create a redundancy for a system that already exists and works exceptionally well. Even worse, the parallel tracks risk confusing patrons who engage in these markets by utilizing the veneer of a highly regulated market when, in reality, their markets are more akin to the ‘wild west.”

Now, O’Toole urges the Pennsylvania’s US Senators, and 17 Congressional members to seek additional consideration from the CFTC over sports events futures, asserting that they masquerade as federally regulated

Related: Michigan Tells Its Sportsbooks to Stay Away from Prediction Markets

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A Growing Call for Oversight

O'Toole's letter adds to the increasing chorus of opposition against prediction markets, particularly sports events futures, and their potential consequences. Earlier this year, NBA Chair Adam Silver and the Michigan Gaming Board formally expressed similar concerns to the commission.

However, despite the pressure, the CFTC has remained silent on regulatory guidance for prediction markets and sports events futures contracts. In the absence of a federal standard, states are left to navigate the complex regulatory challenges on their own, opening them up to legal actions from operators ordered to shut down.

For instance, this week, Kalshi sued the Ohio Casino Control Commission for ordering it to cease operations in the state. The platform alleged regulatory overreach and seeks to continue offering prediction markets in the jurisdiction.

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