Survey: 90% of Americans Support Access to Prediction Markets
A Kalshi-commissioned poll reports that nearly nine in 10 Americans back access to prediction markets.
LISTEN TO THIS ARTICLE:Axis Research surveyed 1,219 likely voters online between September 18 and 23, 2025, and concluded that 89% of respondents agree Americans should have the option to use prediction markets. More than half of those polled (54%) said they strongly agreed with that proposition. The study – commissioned by Kalshi, a prominent U.S. prediction market operator – also found that 70% of respondents support the ability to invest in contracts tied to specific outcomes, such as movements in commodity prices, election results or agricultural indicators.
Support was widely distributed across demographic and political lines. According to Axis Research’s weighted results, 75% of Republicans and 71% of Democrats said they favoured access to these markets, and the level of support remained high across income brackets. Even among respondents who reported never having participated in a prediction market, two-thirds backed access.
The poll further asked how respondents viewed activities traditionally framed as investments versus gambling. Buying stocks, mutual funds or taking positions in commodities markets were seen by 89% as financial investments, not gambling, and 79% said such activities would be better overseen by federal financial regulators rather than state gaming commissions. The poll did not name a specific federal body but invited respondents to consider federal-level oversight as an alternative to state gaming regulation.
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Kalshi Faces Legal Hurdles Amid Poll Debate
Kalshi’s commissioning of the poll comes amid ongoing legal disputes for the firm in several states. The company has faced a notable setback in Massachusetts, where litigation over whether certain event contracts fall under state gambling laws has progressed through the courts. Those legal battles are a key reason industry supporters are pressing for federal clarity on how prediction markets should be regulated.
Critics argue the sponsorship of the survey by an interested party undermines its neutrality. "Because Kalshi paid for this research, the results should be interpreted cautiously", said Ethan Morales, senior researcher at the Public Accountability Institute. "Polling can reflect legitimate public sentiment, but when a commercial actor facing state-level legal challenges funds a survey, that context matters for how the findings are used in policy debates."
Other public opinion research paints a more mixed picture. For example, a separate YouGov poll has suggested that many Americans see risks associated with expanded legal betting – 44% of respondents in that survey said legalized betting is hurting sports, while only a minority believed it was beneficial. Those figures suggest public attitudes toward different forms of betting and prediction activity can vary depending on question wording and the specific markets described.
Industry analysts say the Axis Research findings help reframe prediction markets as tools for price discovery and risk transfer rather than purely recreational gambling. "If everyday Americans treat these contracts like other financial instruments, federal regulators should establish clear rules that protect participants without stifling innovation", said Laura Chen, senior analyst at iGaming Insights. "A consistent national framework would reduce legal fragmentation and provide firms and consumers with predictable obligations and protections."
Regulatory scholars add that moving oversight to federal agencies would entail both benefits and trade-offs. "Federal supervision could harmonize standards, but it would also raise complex jurisdictional and product-definition questions for regulators such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or the Securities and Exchange Commission", said Professor Anita Suresh, a financial law expert at Boston University. "Policymakers need to balance market integrity, consumer protection and free expression in designing any new framework."
Methodology Notes and Further Reading
The Axis Research poll was conducted using a mix of online panels and weighted to mirror the electorate by region, gender, age, ethnicity and political affiliation. As with all surveys, results are subject to sampling error and depend on question wording and context. Observers advising legislators or regulators should consider the range of public opinion evidence, legal precedents in state courts, and the technical specifics of different prediction contracts when debating how to regulate the sector.
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