Ukraine Declares Polymarket Illegal and Orders ISP Block
Ukraine has directed internet service providers to block Polymarket, declaring the prediction market’s services illegal under national law.
LISTEN TO THIS ARTICLE:Ukraine’s National Commission for the Regulation of Electronic Communications issued Resolution No. 695, instructing domestic ISPs to add polymarket.com to the country’s official list of blocked internet resources. The regulator said the move targets platforms that facilitate wagering-style activity outside the regulated gambling framework and that Polymarket’s contracts for outcomes effectively amount to unlicensed betting.
Although Polymarket operates as a prediction market where users buy and sell shares that reflect the market’s implied probability of an event, Ukrainian officials said the distinction from traditional fixed-odds betting is largely technical. "When financial stakes are placed on the outcome of events without a licence, the activity falls squarely under our gambling law", a commission spokesperson told local media. The regulator added that offering outcome contracts on live military operations raises additional legal and ethical red flags.
The commission cited particular concern about markets tied to the war in Ukraine. Public analytics aggregated by local observers show trading volume connected to conflict-related outcomes exceeded $100 million by the end of 2025, a figure that has heightened scrutiny from Kyiv’s security and regulatory agencies. Authorities say such markets may pose national security, ethical and misinformation risks when unregulated participants speculate on ongoing military operations.
Wider Industry Reaction
The Ukrainian action places the country among roughly 33 jurisdictions that have taken steps to restrict Polymarket or similar platforms, including several major European markets such as France, Germany and Italy. Romania is one of the latest countries in Europe to ban the platform. The United States has also previously taken enforcement action: Polymarket paid a $1.4 million penalty in 2022 to resolve Commodity Futures Trading Commission concerns and withdrew from the US market at that time.
Polymarket has since pursued a limited US relaunch after acquiring QCX LLC and obtaining a designated contract market licence, and it has been piloting a regulated exchange. The company did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the Ukrainian decision, but industry observers say the Kyiv move follows a broader pattern of regulators treating outcome-based contracts as gambling or as regulated financial instruments depending on local law.
"Regulators are increasingly focused on where prediction markets intersect with public policy and public safety", said Dr. Elena Petrova, senior analyst at H2 Gambling Capital. "Policymakers face a difficult trade-off: protecting citizens and national security, while not stifling financial innovation in decentralised markets. The reaction in Ukraine is consistent with a precautionary approach in times of conflict."
Critics of blanket blocking caution that enforcement alone may not address underlying problems. An independent researcher familiar with digital markets noted the need for clearer legal definitions and cross-border cooperation. "Blocking a domain can stop casual access, but it does not resolve questions about enforcement, user protection, or accountability in opaque markets", she said.
Legal commentators also point out that different regulators reach different conclusions: some treat prediction contracts as financial derivatives and subject them to securities or commodities rules, while others characterise them as gambling and apply gaming legislation. That inconsistency has complicated responses from platforms operating globally.
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For operators of prediction markets, Ukraine’s decision underscores the growing regulatory fragmentation firms face when markets touch politically sensitive subjects. Firms that wish to operate internationally must now navigate a patchwork of gambling, securities and communications laws and, in some cases, face outright access bans.
For regulators, the case reinforces the tension between rapid product innovation and the slower pace of statutory reform. As nations refine their approaches, stakeholders including platforms, civil society and security agencies will press for clearer guidance on permissible markets, enhanced transparency and stronger safeguards where betting intersects with public safety.
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