US Government Shutdown Means Bad News for Polymarket
The ongoing US government shutdown has placed prediction platform Polymarket in limbo, preventing it from offering markets domestically until federal operations resume.
LISTEN TO THIS ARTICLE:The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates derivatives and event-based contracts, has historically paused self-certification reviews during shutdowns. Without active oversight, the regulator cannot process filings for new market types, effectively freezing the approval process. The latest shutdown began on October 1, leaving platforms such as Polymarket unable to move forward with US market launches.
Under the CFTC's current procedures, designated contract markets (DCMs) must file self-certifications before introducing new trading products. This system allows exchanges to notify the agency of upcoming listings.
If the CFTC does not intervene within a set timeframe, the markets can go live, though they are not officially considered approved. The process depends on administrative continuity, which halts during government shutdowns due to furloughed staff and suspended operations.
Related: Polymarket Returns to the US via Purchase of Options ExchangePrevious shutdowns provide context for the current delay. The most recent lengthy federal shutdown lasted 35 days from December 2018 through January 2019. Earlier interruptions in 2018 and 2013 lasted three days and 17 days, respectively. During those periods, the CFTC suspended the processing of market certifications and rule filings, halting the introduction of new contracts until normal operations resumed.
Legal experts in commodities regulation have noted that the CFTC's decision to freeze self-certifications during shutdowns is not mandated by law but has become agency practice. The approach reflects the regulator's cautious interpretation of its duties under limited staffing conditions. However, that precedent could potentially change under the current leadership structure.
More Business News
One Possible Avenue for Launch
Acting Chair Caroline Pham, who currently serves as the CFTC's sole commissioner, may have the authority to alter the agency's handling of certifications during the shutdown. Pham has previously expressed disagreement with the decision to halt such filings during past shutdowns.
Her background includes serving as a special counsel and policy advisor to Commissioner Scott O'Malia during the 2013 shutdown, a period when the CFTC was implementing key reforms from the Dodd-Frank Act. More recently, in 2023, she was a commissioner when a last-minute continuing resolution narrowly prevented another lapse in government funding.
Pham's current role gives her considerable influence over agency procedures, including the possibility of resuming certain administrative actions despite the shutdown. That authority could determine whether Polymarket can proceed with its planned US launch through its affiliated exchange.
Polymarket has been preparing to re-enter the American market through QCEX, a designated contract market it acquired in July as part of its compliance-focused relaunch strategy. On October 1, QCEX filed several self-certifications with the CFTC for market types, including outcomes of sports games, totals, and point spreads. These filings are a required step before Polymarket can legally offer contracts to US users under CFTC oversight.
Despite those submissions, no corresponding entries have appeared on the CFTC's public portal. The last visible self-certification filing on the agency's site was posted on September 29, indicating that all new filings since then remain unprocessed.
The CFTC's rules section shows a similar lack of movement, with the last certified document from September 30. Another filing from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, submitted for a 10-day review on September 17, has also not been acted upon, even though the review period has long expired.
RELATED TOPICS: Business
Review this New Post
Leave a Comment
User Comments
Comments for US Government Shutdown Means Bad News for Polymarket