‘Vegas Is Fine’: MGM Predicts Stabilization After Softer Summer
MGM says Las Vegas is “fine” as it looks to a stronger fourth quarter and 2026.
LISTEN TO THIS ARTICLE:MGM Resorts International acknowledged a softer summer across its Las Vegas operations but pushed back on any suggestion of long-term decline, telling investors it expects stabilization heading into the fourth quarter of 2025 and momentum into 2026. The comments came a day after rival Caesars Entertainment posted weaker-than-expected third-quarter results, underlining the broader challenges confronting the Strip.
For the third quarter of 2025, MGM reported roughly $2 billion in net revenue from its nine Las Vegas properties, down nearly 7 percent from the same period a year earlier. Gaming revenue on company properties fell to about $450 million, a 5 percent decline year-over-year, while room revenue dropped 11 percent to $660 million from $743 million. Occupancy slipped to 89 percent from 94 percent in 2024 and the average daily room rate dipped $7 to $236.
Adjusted EBITDAR for Las Vegas was $601 million versus $731 million in third-quarter 2024, an 18 percent reduction. MGM’s finance chief, Jonathan Halkyard, said the year-over-year EBITDAR decline was “driven by $78 million from lower occupancy and room rates, $25 million from MGM Grand renovations, and $27 million from reduced insurance proceeds,” noting that lower-performing properties such as Luxor and Excalibur accounted for roughly half of the operational shortfall.
Despite those numbers, MGM’s president and CEO Bill Hornbuckle struck an upbeat tone on the company’s earnings call. “As we look to the fourth quarter, we see signs of stabilization as the luxury market segment continues exhibiting strength, groups and conventions are returning, all MGM Grand guest rooms will be upgraded and back online, and F1 ticketing pre-sales, particularly for the Bellagio Fountain Club, are pacing higher versus the prior year, all of which puts us on a solid footing as we approach 2026,” Hornbuckle said. “Vegas is fine. Fundamentally, we feel good about the fourth quarter.”
Those comments arrive as destination-wide indicators show softness. The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority reported an 8.8 percent decline in visitation for September 2025 compared with September 2024, capping nine months of lower year-over-year foot traffic. Gaming win for the city was also down, with Strip casinos registering a 5.5 percent drop and downtown tables slipping 2 percent.
Company executives pointed to near-term headwinds that reduced earnings, including temporary room closures for a major renovation at MGM Grand. MGM has completed a $300 million room overhaul at MGM Grand that upgraded bathrooms and plumbing after taking multiple floors offline during construction. The company said additional room refreshes will follow: Aria is slated to begin work in November 2026 with the bulk of activity targeted for summer 2027 to avoid peak convention periods, and The Cosmopolitan’s program is planned afterward.
Hornbuckle argued the capital expenditure will pay dividends as the refreshed room product drives higher occupancy and room rates over time, particularly in the luxury segment, where demand appears more resilient.
Related: Analyst Predicts Las Vegas Recovery in 2026 After Prolonged Softness
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What to Watch Through 2026
Operators and investors will be monitoring several signals to judge whether the Strip’s summer softness is temporary. Key items include convention and group booking trends through the fourth quarter, average daily rates and occupancy during peak trade-show weeks, and the impact of marquee events such as the Las Vegas Grand Prix and ancillary offerings like premium club packages at the Bellagio.
Other variables include the pace of post-renovation demand at properties coming back online, insurance recoveries that can affect quarterly earnings, and how competitors such as Caesars and Las Vegas Sands position pricing and promotions. Analysts will also watch broader consumer spending and air-traffic data into 2026 to see whether leisure travel rebounds enough to offset a quieter business-travel segment.
For now, MGM is banking on a combination of refreshed product, convention comeback, and the marketing halo from major events to return revenue growth. Whether those factors will fully restore third-quarter margins remains a focal point for industry observers as casino operators begin to publish full-year strategies and capital plans ahead of 2026.
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