Google Clears Advertising Path for Regulated Prediction Markets
Google will permit advertising for federally regulated prediction markets in the US beginning Jan. 21.
LISTEN TO THIS ARTICLE:Google announced a policy change taking effect Jan. 21 that will allow advertising for event-driven prediction markets on its platforms, including Search, YouTube and partner sites – but only for operators subject to federal oversight. The move is the first time Google has explicitly permitted paid marketing for these products in the United States and signals a recalibration of how major tech platforms treat markets that straddle finance and gambling.
Under the new rules, only exchanges recognized by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) and brokers registered with the National Futures Association (NFA) that provide access to those exchanges will be eligible to advertise. Prospective advertisers must also complete a certification process demonstrating they hold the required licenses for the jurisdictions they target and meet applicable financial and compliance standards. Google emphasized that advertisers are responsible for ensuring their campaigns comply with federal and local law.
The policy change explicitly continues Google’s longstanding ban on binary options advertising, citing consumer-harm concerns. That prohibition remains in place for offshore platforms, signal services and educational sites that promote binary options trading.
Industry participants said the update will give licensed operators such as Kalshi and any future CFTC-authorized entrants a new route to reach mainstream audiences. Yet the allowance is uneven across the US: Nevada is excluded from this permission because of ongoing litigation and enforcement actions that have restricted the operation of several prediction market services there. Other states, including Maryland, remain part of the scheme but continue to see legal challenges to specific platforms.
Related: Google Bans Offline Real‑Money Gambling Ads in 35 Countries
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What This Means for Operators and Consumers
Regulators and market participants described the change as part of a broader trend in which large tech platforms tie advertising access to a company’s regulatory status. "This is a meaningful step toward aligning platform policy with regulatory guardrails", said Dr. Laura Simmons, a regulatory scholar who studies financial innovation. "By limiting ads to entities that clear federal oversight, Google is effectively rewarding firms that invest in compliance while reducing the visibility of unregulated operators that present greater consumer risk."
For operators, the policy offers tangible commercial value: placement across Google properties can materially boost customer acquisition and brand recognition. For consumers, it may improve transparency and help direct traffic to venues where trade execution, custody and dispute resolution are subject to federal rules. But experts cautioned that advertising approvals do not eliminate market risk. "Advertising access is not the same as endorsement", said Jonathan Meyer, a compliance director at a fintech consultancy. "Users still need clear disclosures about product mechanics, fees and the fact that contracts can expire worthless if outcomes don't occur."
Market analysts predict the update could accelerate efforts by prediction market platforms to secure DCM designation or to partner with NFA-registered brokers. It may also prompt renewed scrutiny from state regulators and consumer protection agencies, particularly in jurisdictions that have raised legal objections in recent months.
As prediction markets seek wider visibility, the split between federally regulated providers and unregulated operators is likely to deepen. For now, Google’s policy change removes a significant visibility barrier for compliant firms while reinforcing the commercial cost of operating outside established regulatory frameworks.
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