Kalshi Aims for Prediction Markets Expansion into Brazil
Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of Kalshi, said the US-based prediction market platform is studying a potential expansion into Brazil in 2026, according to an interview with Valor.
Lopes Lara said the company has not finalized any plans and remains in an exploratory phase. She added that international growth became a focus after Kalshi completed its latest fundraising round.
Related: Massachusetts is Suing Kalshi for Offering Sports BettingKalshi, headquartered in New York, has emerged as a major disruptor in the US gambling-adjacent market in 2025 through its event-based contracts tied to political, economic, and sports outcomes. The company's growth has attracted scrutiny from state regulators who argue some offerings resemble sports betting. Kalshi disputes that interpretation.
The company's rise has coincided with broader industry interest in prediction markets. DraftKings and FanDuel launched their own prediction market products earlier this month. Both companies partnered with CME Group to list contracts.
Lopes Lara, who is Brazilian, cited her home country as a potential next step for Kalshi's expansion. She said the company announced plans to pursue international markets shortly after completing its third funding round this year. That financing valued Kalshi at approximately $11 billion.
Brazil launched a regulated online betting market in 2025, creating a formal framework for sportsbooks and gaming operators. Lopes Lara said there is currently no product in Brazil comparable to Kalshi's model. How prediction markets would be classified under Brazilian law remains unclear.
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Brazil Gambling Regulations Don't Cover Prediction Markets
Neither Brazil's betting regulator, the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets, nor the country's securities regulator has issued public guidance on prediction markets. In the US, Kalshi has faced sustained opposition from state regulators and tribal gaming interests. Those disputes have resulted in multiple court cases.
In late November, a federal judge in Nevada dissolved a preliminary injunction that had blocked the state from taking enforcement action against Kalshi. Nevada regulators contend the platform is offering illegal gambling under state law. The ruling reversed a prior decision that had temporarily favored the company.
Kalshi is also involved in legal action in other states, including Connecticut. There, the company filed suit after state regulators issued cease-and-desist letters alleging it was offering unauthorized sports betting. The case remains ongoing.
Kalshi argues that it operates as a federally regulated exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is therefore not subject to state gambling laws. That position has not prevented states from challenging its activities. Legal outcomes have varied across jurisdictions.
In Brazil, regulators are moving to strengthen financial safeguards within the betting sector while increasing taxes on licensed operators. Prediction markets that fall outside existing betting and securities frameworks could face resistance. Lopes Lara said Kalshi is still evaluating how to approach the market and hopes to share more details in early 2026.
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