Finland Publishes 2-4-2 Gambling Harm Framework Before 2027 Market Opening
Finland has unveiled a simple self-assessment framework intended to help players limit gambling harm as the country moves to a licensed online market.
LISTEN TO THIS ARTICLE:The Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare has published the 2-4-2 model, a three-pronged guideline that recommends players spend no more than 2 percent of net income on gambling, play on no more than four days each month, and avoid regularly taking part in more than two different types of games. THL presents the tool as a practical, locally adapted aid for people to gauge and manage their behaviour.
THL said the guidance builds on two years of domestic research and adapts concepts from Canada s Lower-Risk Gambling Guidelines to fit Finnish demographics and play patterns. Sari Castrén, Research Chief at the institute, said the model was developed to provide clear, evidence-based thresholds that players can apply in everyday decisions. The thresholds are not intended to be legal limits but to act as a public-health reference for safer play and early self-reflection.
The move comes as Finland prepares to dismantle the long-standing monopoly of state operator Veikkaus and introduce a competitive, licensed online market. Under the transition timetable set by the government, companies will be eligible to apply for online gambling licences from March 2026, with the regulated market scheduled to begin at the start of July 2027.
Officials at THL said they are concerned the commercialisation of online gambling risks shifting emphasis from harm reduction to revenue generation, with increased advertising and aggressive customer acquisition likely to raise exposure among vulnerable players. National prevalence figures underline the urgency: current estimates place roughly 151,000 people, about 4.2 percent of the population, in categories consistent with problem gambling.
Related: Finland Ends State Gambling Monopoly; Online Licences Open from March 1
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Parallel to the public-health guidance, the Gambling Risk and Harm Assessment Group under the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health has advanced a set of consumer protection measures for consultation. Key proposals include a cross-operator loss limit register that would cap player losses across all licensed operators, mandatory player controls such as deposit, loss and time limits, and cooling-off periods to interrupt harmful play patterns.
Some operators have warned that stringent, centrally enforced loss limits could drive customers to unregulated offshore sites where protections are weaker. Industry submissions are being solicited and stakeholders have until February 24 to provide formal feedback on the proposed rules. In a separate review, the government is examining whether scratchcards should be permitted as gifts, a change some industry observers say is intended to safeguard state lottery revenues; that study is due to conclude at the end of March.
An independent gambling policy analyst said the 2-4-2 approach is a useful communication tool but cannot substitute for robust regulatory safeguards. The analyst highlighted that clear player limits, transparent advertising rules and accessible blocking tools are essential complements to any self-assessment guidance. Without those safeguards, voluntary thresholds may have limited effect on reducing harm at scale.
THL has framed the 2-4-2 model as part of a broader prevention strategy that combines public information, screening and regulatory measures. Regulators, public-health bodies and operators will now face the task of integrating the guidance into licensing conditions, product design and consumer communications in the run-up to the regulated market s launch.
Next steps include the closing of the regulatory consultation, further analysis by ministries and agencies, and the formal publication of licence terms ahead of applications in March 2026. How regulators balance player protection with market access will determine whether the opening of Finland s online sector reduces overall harm or simply shifts where and how it occurs.
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