Fed Hike Odds Rise as CLARITY Act and New People Bets Gain

Polymarket traders pushed September Fed hike odds to 56.5%, while CLARITY Act passage reached 14.5%. The latest prediction market news also shows New People at 23.85% and WTI record-high odds at 1.75%.

1. Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?: Traders bet on a surprise hike

The Odds: YES at $0.5650 | NO at $0.4350 (Implied Probability: 56.5% to 43.5%)

The Trend: Yes rose +5.00 pp in 24h [ YES: 56.5% ] ███████████░░░░░░░░░ [ NO: 43.5% ]

The Breakdown

This market pays out “Yes” if the FOMC meeting on September 15-16, 2026 raises the upper bound of the federal funds target range by exactly 25 basis points. It resolves on the official announcement; any non-standard change is rounded to the nearest 25 bps bracket. Traders can also lean on related contracts: “no-change after Sept meeting” at $0.4250 (24h change -0.05), “25 bps cut” at $0.0055 (-0.002), “50+ bps hike” at $0.0075 (+0.001), and the broader “Fed rate hike in 2026?” at $0.7100 (+0.035).

The Catalyst

Despite mid-August data showing cooling inflation and a flat labor market, July payrolls fell by 23,000 and core CPI eased to 2.5% y/y, Polymarket traders pushed hike odds higher. A Reuters poll (Aug 12-17) still put 90% odds on a hold, but bank strategy notes and CME’s FedWatch kept a September move “firmly in play.” With August CPI due Sept 11, retail prediction participants are re-balancing for a hawkish surprise rather than waiting on a clear 24-hour headline.

The Bettor’s Angle

At $0.5650, this contract offers lean value against consensus hold. Hedgers could pair it with a short “no-change” position at $0.4250, capturing the 14 pp swing between scenarios. Note that liquidity is strongest here, but trade size should still respect depth limits when markets move sharply into settlement week.

2. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: Blockchain firms see a path as Senate moves loom

The Odds: YES at $0.1450 | NO at $0.8550 (Implied Probability: 14.5% to 85.5%)

The Trend: Yes rose +2.00 pp in 24h [ YES: 14.5% ] ███░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ [ NO: 85.5% ]

The Breakdown

This market resolves “Yes” if H.R.3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, wins approval in both chambers of Congress and is signed by the President by December 31, 2026. A failure in either the House or Senate, or a missed deadline, settles the contract “No.”

The Catalyst

After passing the House in July 2025, the bill was reported out of Senate Banking on June 1, 2026, with a 616-page substitute. On July 22, Senator Cynthia Lummis released merged committee text, signaling serious negotiations. Most critically, a cloture motion to proceed was filed on August 8, 2026, formally moving the measure toward a floor vote. Crypto policy trackers now describe it as “two steps from law,” driving the 2 pp uptick in Polymarket odds.

The Bettor’s Angle

At $0.1450, this contract may undervalue late-stage procedural momentum. Traders expecting a floor vote in September could layer small longs while watching for cloture votes. Beware that a single senator’s holdout could stall the process, so size positions to limit exposure if the Senate calendar shifts.

3. Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?: Small party surge reshapes seat-gain bets

The Odds: YES at $0.2385 | NO at $0.7615 (Implied Probability: 23.85% to 76.15%)

The Trend: Yes rose +1.90 pp in 24h [ YES: 23.85% ] █████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ [ NO: 76.15% ]

The Breakdown

This contract pays “Yes” if New People gains more seats than any other party in the Sept 18-20, 2026 State Duma election, measured against its pre-election baseline. Ties are broken by vote totals then alphabetical order. It does not require NL to win the plurality of seats overall, only the largest net gain.

The Catalyst

PolitPro polling from August 30-Sept 1 shows NL at 11.2% (up 5.9 points), overtaking the Communists in several trackers. Individual surveys (e.g., VTsIOM, FOM) on August 23 also placed NL in a 9.7-13.3% range. Given NL’s low starting seat count, this jump in vote share mechanically boosts its net seat-gain probability, translating into the 1.9 pp rise in Yes odds.

The Bettor’s Angle

With Yes at $0.2385, there’s value if you trust the momentum narrative. A paired short on United Russia’s “most seats gained” market at $0.7050 can capture the shifting probability. Liquidity is moderate; stagger orders to avoid large slippage if a fresh poll confirms NL’s strength.

4. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: WTI’s record run looks stalled as time decay bites

The Odds: YES at $0.0175 | NO at $0.9825 (Implied Probability: 1.75% to 98.25%)

The Trend: Yes dropped -1.40 pp in 24h [ YES: 1.75% ] ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ [ NO: 98.25% ]

The Breakdown

This market pays “Yes” if the CME-reported high of the front-month WTI futures exceeds $147.27 on any trading day through Sept 30, 2026. It settles immediately on a record breach or “No” after the deadline if the threshold remains unbroken.

The Catalyst

Despite renewed US naval action in the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian export risks, front-month CL has not approached the 2008 peak. With less than a month to go, traders are pulling back as each calm day erodes the plausibility of a $147.27 breakout. The 1.4 pp drop reflects time decay rather than a fresh news shock.

The Bettor’s Angle

At $0.0175, this is a pure lottery ticket on a rare supply spike. If you believe geopolitics could still trigger a sudden rally, small size makes sense. However, most capital should remain on the No side, where risk is negligible and liquidity is deep.

Related: US Open Odds Swing as Tirante Crashes and Navarro Surges

Editor’s Takeaway

From Fed rate futures to crypto law and Duma politics, Polymarket is a live barometer of trader conviction. The push toward a September rate hike and the Senate’s procedural steps on the Clarity Act show how policy expectations evolve ahead of hard deadlines. Meanwhile, New People’s polling surge underscores how small-party momentum can reshape seat-gain markets. On the tennis front, the US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien market collapsed from $0.3450 to $0.0005 (-34.45 pp) once the match result was official, reminding us that resolved outcomes leave no room for speculation.

RELATED TOPICS: Prediction Market News