Fed Hike Odds Surge as Hegseth Impeachment Falls and Taipei Tightens

Polymarket traders pushed another 2026 Fed hike to 95.5% while Pete Hegseth impeachment odds fell to 3.3%. The latest prediction market news also shows Puma Shen at 35.05% and the Israel-Iran ceasefire at 68.5%.

1. Another Fed Rate Hike in 2026? – December Hike Odds Keep Grinding Higher

The Odds: YES at $0.9550 | NO at $0.0450 (Implied Probability: 95.5% to 4.5%)

The Trend: Yes jumped +17.00 pp in 24h [ YES: 95.5% ] ████████████████████ [ NO: 4.5% ]

The Breakdown

This contract resolves Yes if the Fed raises the upper bound of its target federal-funds range at any point from September 17 through completion of the December 8-9, 2026 meeting. At $0.9550, the market is pricing that outcome as the clear base case, while No at $0.0450 is left with only a narrow tail.

The move is not a vague hawkish drift, it is a direct repricing from hold to hike. The research says the December 25-bps hike market rose to 85.5%, the 50+ bps market rose to 9.55%, and the no change market collapsed to 3.85%. That means traders are mostly betting on a small, standard move, with a smaller slice assigned to a larger 50-basis-point surprise.

The Catalyst

October CPI data released November 10 showed headline inflation at 0.4% month over month and core CPI at 0.3% for a third straight month. That lifted Fed-hike pricing for December to roughly 100% from 84% in futures markets. Fed Governor Christopher Waller had already said a core-CPI reading of 0.3% or higher would justify considering a 50-basis-point hike, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the Fed might need to move more rapidly and raise rates by at least another 50 basis points before pausing.

The market reaction lines up with that setup, because the new inflation print made a December increase much more likely and stripped away much of the remaining probability assigned to no further hike in 2026. The linked contracts show where the money landed, 25-bps at 85.5%, 50+ bps at 9.55%, and no change at 3.85%.

The Bettor’s Angle

This is the cleaner tradeable side of the Fed story, because the market is already far into the hike camp and the linked contracts show the shape of the repricing. The 25-bps path looks like the market’s anchor, while the 50+ bps tail is still too small to call the base case.

For bettors, the risk is paying up into a crowded consensus. The edge now sits more in whether the December move is standard or oversized, not in whether the Fed stays put. If you’re looking for a hedge, the linked no change contract at 3.85% shows how little room is left for a dovish surprise.

2. Pete Hegseth Impeached by December 31, 2026? – House Vote Sends Odds Sharply Lower

The Odds: YES at $0.0330 | NO at $0.9670 (Implied Probability: 3.3% to 96.7%)

The Trend: Yes plunged -77.65 pp in 24h [ YES: 3.3% ] █░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ [ NO: 96.7% ]

The Breakdown

This market resolves Yes if the House of Representatives approves one or more articles of impeachment against Hegseth by simple majority before December 31. Senate conviction or removal is not required, so the only thing that matters is a House vote by the deadline.

At $0.0330, traders have almost fully written off that outcome. The research shows the market’s Yes side collapsed after the House failed to advance impeachment articles, which directly undermines the resolution condition. The separate “Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31” market also fell to 12.5%, while the November 30 version fell to 3.95%, reinforcing how much the procedural defeat changed the board.

The Catalyst

On November 10, House Republicans blocked the effort to advance impeachment articles against Hegseth, effectively ending the current push. The effort had been introduced by Representative Thomas Massie after criticism of Hegseth’s role in the Iran war and calls for his resignation.

That failure matters because impeachment needs a House majority vote, and the House did not move the measure forward. The market still leaves a small residual chance because the contract runs through year-end and future articles could still be introduced, but that is a much weaker path than the one that just failed.

The Bettor’s Angle

This is a classic event-driven collapse, and the price reflects it. Once the House blocked the measure, the market shifted from a live political risk to a long-shot tail.

At this level, Yes depends on a new impeachment effort opening quickly and gaining traction before year-end. The linked removal markets also show resignation and departure odds moving lower alongside impeachment risk.

3. Will Puma Shen Win the Next Taipei Mayor Election? – Polling Keeps the Race Live

The Odds: YES at $0.3505 | NO at $0.6495 (Implied Probability: 35.05% to 64.95%)

The Trend: Yes rose +1.50 pp in 24h [ YES: 35.05% ] ███████░░░░░░░░░░░░░ [ NO: 64.95% ]

The Breakdown

This market resolves Yes if Shen becomes Taipei mayor in the November 28, 2026 local election. The current price of $0.3505 says traders see a real path, but still favor the field against him at $0.6495.

The polling picture is split. One November 2 ETtoday survey showed incumbent Chiang Wan-an ahead 52.0% to 40.7%, while a separate telephone poll commissioned by the Taiwan Taolue Association had Shen ahead 52.6% to 35.3%. Taiwan media reported that the latter poll put Shen ahead in 11 of Taipei’s 12 districts and marked the first survey in which his support exceeded 50%.

The Catalyst

The modest 1.5-point rise fits that mixed polling picture, because traders appear to be giving some weight to the pro-Shen telephone poll and the race’s growing competitiveness as election day approaches. The market is not breaking higher because the evidence is still contradictory, and the ETtoday result continues to show a substantial Chiang lead.

The linked market also matters here, Chiang Wan-an remains stronger at 65.5% despite falling 2 points. The gap reflects continued disagreement over how to interpret the available polling rather than a settled race.

The Bettor’s Angle

This is the kind of market where price discipline matters more than narrative. Shen has momentum in one poll set, but not enough to force a consensus breakout above 50%.

The current price leaves room for further movement if additional polling changes the picture. For now, the conflicting surveys keep substantial uncertainty in the contract.

4. Israel-Iran Ceasefire Continues Through December 31? – Longer-Dated Calm Holds for Now

The Odds: YES at $0.6850 | NO at $0.3150 (Implied Probability: 68.5% to 31.5%)

The Trend: Yes rose +1.00 pp in 24h [ YES: 68.5% ] ██████████████░░░░░░ [ NO: 31.5% ]

The Breakdown

This contract resolves Yes if no qualifying Israeli or Iranian air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacts the other country through December 31. The contract excludes intercepted munitions, cyber operations, artillery, ground incursions, and minor drone attacks, so the bar for failure is specific and narrow.

At $0.6850, the market still leans toward continuity, but the No side at $0.3150 is large enough to show traders do not see the ceasefire as fully locked in over the longer window. The research also notes that the shorter ceasefire continues through November 15 contract is priced at 97.4%, which shows how much more secure the immediate period looks compared with the year-end horizon.

The Catalyst

No verifiable catalyst for the 1-point move is established by the available reporting. The increase is too small to pin on a specific military incident, diplomatic development, or formal announcement.

That leaves the move looking like routine positioning or a modest adjustment to the longer-dated contract from developments already reflected in the shorter ceasefire market. The linked 97.4% November 15 contract is the cleaner reference point, because it shows traders are comfortable near term while still pricing meaningful cumulative break risk into December.

The Bettor’s Angle

This is not a momentum trade with a clear headline driver, so it should be treated as a slower-moving position. The market is comfortably above the midpoint, but not so high that the downside can be ignored.

The immediate ceasefire contract is priced much higher than the year-end version, highlighting how additional time adds more event risk to the December 31 market.

Related: Anthropic IPO Surges as Fed Hike and Israel-Iran Ceasefire Odds Rise

Editor’s Takeaway

The Fed and Hegseth markets produced the biggest moves in today’s roundup. Another 2026 Fed hike jumped 17 points to 95.5%, while Hegseth impeachment odds collapsed 77.65 points to 3.3% after the House failed to advance the effort. Puma Shen’s Taipei mayor odds edged up to 35.05% amid conflicting polling, while the Israel-Iran ceasefire through December 31 rose slightly to 68.5%.

RELATED TOPICS: Responsible Gambling