Macau Premium-Mass Wagers Fall 45% as Citi Lowers September Forecast

MACAU – Citigroup has cut its September Macau casino revenue forecast to MOP18 billion ($2.25 billion) after recording sharply weaker premium-mass play.

The brokerage’s latest table survey found observed premium-mass wagers down 45% year over year, alongside fewer players and a lower average wager.

Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau reduced their September gross gaming revenue forecast from MOP19 billion after observing Macau casino floors on Sept. 18. The revised estimate would also put third-quarter GGR about 4% below the same period last year.

Premium-Mass Wagers Fall 45%

Total premium-mass wagers observed during the survey reached HK$6.8 million ($871,000), down from HK$12.3 million a year earlier. The number of premium-mass players fell 20% to 401, while the average wager per player dropped 31% to HK$16,958.

Citi characterized the results as among the weakest in its recent survey history but cautioned against treating a single evening as proof of a sustained decline in customer spending. The survey was conducted shortly before the Mid-Autumn Festival and October Golden Week, creating the possibility that some higher-value customers had delayed their trips.

The softer September reading follows official August results showing Macau casino GGR of MOP21.89 billion, down 1.2% year over year but 8.1% higher than July. The Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported cumulative GGR of MOP169.05 billion through the first eight months of 2026, up 3.7% from the corresponding period last year.

Galaxy and MGM Gain Premium-Mass Share

Galaxy Entertainment Group ranked first in Citi’s latest premium-mass survey, accounting for 26% of observed wagers, compared with 20% in September 2025. MGM China followed with a 24% share, up from 9% a year earlier.

Citi observed 14 high-stakes premium-mass players during the September visit, compared with 31 in August and 27 a year earlier. Five were seen across MGM China’s two properties, the highest count among Macau’s six casino concessionaires.

The survey also recorded two HK$300,000 individual wagers, one at Wynn Palace and another at MGM Cotai. Other large bets included HK$220,000 at StarWorld and HK$130,000 at Studio City.

The weaker premium survey comes as Macau’s casino market moves toward slower growth after its post-pandemic recovery, increasing the importance of higher-spending mass customers to concessionaires.

Golden Week Could Test Whether Weakness Persists

Citi pointed to the upcoming holiday and entertainment calendar as the next major test of demand. October events include concerts across Galaxy, MGM and Sands properties, along with the NBA China Games at The Venetian and The Londoner.

The brokerage noted that a weak September survey in 2024 was followed by stronger activity during October Golden Week, when some customers delayed trips to coincide with major entertainment events. Citi therefore stopped short of concluding that September’s lower observed wagers represented a lasting pullback.

The MOP18 billion forecast nevertheless reflects a more cautious near-term view ahead of the holiday period. Official September GGR figures will provide the broader test of whether the weakness observed in Citi’s table survey carried through to the full Macau casino market.

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